Canada: Pulse and Special Crops Outlook
June 4, 2004
ISSN 1499-9773

Area seeded to pulse and special crops for 2004-05 in Canada is forecast to increase by 4%, as higher seeded areas for dry peas, lentils, canary seed, chick peas and buckwheat more than offset lower areas for dry beans, mustard seed and sunflower seed. Statistics Canada's (STC) seeding intentions survey, conducted during March 24-31 and released on April 23, provided forecasts of areas seeded for most of the pulse and special crops by province but, in some cases, the area seeded has been forecast by AAFC. The actual seeded areas may differ from the intentions due to changes in market outlook, expected prices, producer reaction to the STC seeding intentions report and, especially, weather conditions at seeding time. The STC seeded area estimates will be released on June 29. Seeding was later than normal and later than in 2003-04, but it is mostly complete, with the exception of dry beans and buckwheat. Seeding of dry beans was delayed by wet weather in Manitoba and Ontario, while seeding of buckwheat is normally late. It is assumed that precipitation will be normal for the growing and harvest periods. Although, soil moisture reserves improved during May for parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta, many areas continue to have below normal moisture reserves. Therefore, yields in these provinces are forecast to be below trend. For the other provinces, trend yields are forecast. It has been assumed that abandonment and average quality will be normal.

For 2004-05, total pulse and special crops production is forecast to increase by 13%, from 2003-04, to 4.16 million tonnes (Mt). Total supply is expected to increase by only 7% to 4.71 Mt, because of lower carry-in stocks. Although exports and domestic use are forecast to increase due to the higher supply and strong demand, carry-out stocks are also expected to increase. Average prices, over all grades and markets, are forecast to increase from 2003-04 for dry beans, chick peas and sunflower seed, decrease for dry peas, lentils, mustard seed and canary seed, and be the same for buckwheat. However, due to low world carry-in stocks, prices are expected to be very sensitive to any production problems. The main factors to watch will be precipitation during the growing and harvest periods in Canada, exchange rates, and growing conditions in the major producing countries, especially the US, Australia, India, France and Turkey.

DRY PEAS

For 2004-05, production and supply are forecast to increase, due to a 4% increase in seeded area and higher yields. Production is expected to increase for yellow, green and other types. World supply is forecast to increase by 3% to 11.7 Mt, mainly because of higher production in Canada, EU, US and Australia, but this is expected to be mostly offset by increased use in both the feed and food markets. Canadian exports and domestic use are forecast to increase, due to the higher supply and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase with a stocks-to-use (s/u) ratio of 15%. The average price, over all types, grades and markets, is forecast to decrease due to the higher supply.

LENTILS

Production and supply are forecast to increase, due to a 26% increase in seeded area and higher yields. Production is expected to increase for large, medium and small green, red and other types. World supply is expected to increase by 9% to 3.37 Mt, due mainly to higher production in Canada, Australia and India. Canadian exports are expected to increase, as Canada's share of world supply increases. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase, with a s/u of 13%. The average price, over all types and grades, is forecast to decrease due to the higher supply.

DRY BEANS

Production and supply are forecast to decrease sharply, due to a 9% decrease in seeded area and lower yields. Production is expected to decrease for all classes, including white pea, pinto, black, red kidney, cranberry, Great Northern, small red and pink. Exports are forecast to decrease, due to lower supply, and carry-out stocks are expected to decrease to a low level. US production and supply are also expected to decrease due to a forecast 5% decrease in seeded area and lower carry-in stocks. Total US and Canadian supply of all major classes of dry beans is forecast to fall. The average price, over all classes and grades, is forecast to rise sharply due to lower supply.

CHICK PEAS

Production is forecast to increase marginally, due to a 4% increase in seeded area. Production is expected to increase for the large kabuli type, but decrease for the desi and small kabuli types. However, supply is forecast to decrease for all types due to lower carry-in stocks. World supply is expected to decrease by 5% to 8.2 Mt. Canadian exports are forecast to decrease due to lower supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decrease to a low level. The average price, over all types, sizes and grades, is forecast to increase due to the lower supply.

MUSTARD SEED

Production is forecast to decrease due to a 16% decrease in seeded area. Production is expected to decrease for the brown and yellow types, but increase moderately for the oriental type. However, supply is forecast to increase due to higher carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to increase because of stronger demand and lower prices. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase slightly, with a s/u ratio of 52%. The average price is forecast to increase for the yellow type, but decrease for the brown and oriental types. The average price, over all types and grades, is forecast to decrease slightly.

CANARY SEED

Production and supply are forecast to increase, due to a 6% increase in seeded area and higher carry-in stocks. World supply is forecast to increase by 11% to 315,000 t. Canadian exports are expected to increase, because of higher supply. Carry-out stocks are forecast to increase, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 29%. The average price is forecast to decrease because of the higher supply.

SUNFLOWER SEED

Production and supply are forecast to fall, due to a 24% decrease in seeded area. Production is expected to decrease for both types, confectionary and oilseed. In the US, seeded area, production and supply are also forecast to decrease for both types. World supply is expected to increase marginally to 27.1 Mt. Canadian exports and domestic use are expected to remain stable, causing carry-out stocks to decrease to a low level. The average price, over both types and all grades, is forecast to increase due to the lower supply in Canada and the US.

BUCKWHEAT

Production is forecast to increase, due to an increase in seeded area, while supply decreases due to lower carry-in stocks. World supply is forecast to increase slightly to 2.2 Mt. Canadian exports are forecast to remain stable, while carry-out stocks decrease to a negligible level. The average price, over all grades and markets, is forecast to be the same as in 2003-04, as lower Canadian supply offset pressure from higher world supply.

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